6. The World We Live In

Economic Trends

1. Although this is not a national trend, it is surely an economic trend that will affect several coastal counties in Florida and generate economic growth all the way from where it stands now in Tampa to Georgia.  After years of debate about whether or not it would even be built and where it would be built, we now know that the Suncoast Parkway has started construction as will have a major impact on my home county of Citrus.

a. The source of the graphic above is from the Citrus County Chronicle (https://www.chronicleonline.com/opinion/columnists/go-west-then-north/article_273ec9e4-86e4-11e8-8196-ff799baaceef.html) but the roads construction has been a topic in local politics for several years now.  More information on the project can be found from FDOT (http://www.floridasturnpike.com/suncoast2.html).  This road has several estimated projections that all believe in significant economic growth for Citrus County.  Considering that we do not have any direct I-75 interchange in the county, this provides great access to Tampa.

b. With this major road being built, and to where it will extend, gives me the idea that Citrus County will receive a large amount of economic growth from southern-central Florida.  All of our local news is based out of Tampa Bay and we are typically the furthest north in many of their broadcasts which consistently leaves us out of the loop.  However, with the Suncoast being expanded, there have been estimates pointing to increase in full-time population, thousands of jobs, hundreds if not thousands of daily commuters, and a potential of millions of dollars being supplemented into the county yearly.  I do not provide direct statistics because nothing is known with full confidence until the road is completed.  

c. If I have to say anyone is the main customer during the building of the road it has to be the Florida government.  If you are a land developer, I would highly suggest that you purchase where you believe the road will be constructed because the state of Florida will have to pay high dollar if they want to build where you own.  Another customer to the land developers would be businesses.  If the Parkway does not end up on your property, but your land is adjacent, you can now sell your property for high dollar to other businesses.  The last prototypical customer will be your new full-time and transient population along the entire stretch.  They will need every service they had before now along this new stretch of roadway.  If this demand increases sharply, suppliers will supply and profits will come.

d. Because we still do not have an entirely set route for the Suncoast I am going to have to say it will be hard to exploit.  If you invest in property to sell to the government, businesses, or to start a business and the road ends up along another path, you may have difficulty removing yourself from that investment.  Also, the management of an asset like property in this prime location will not be easy because the length of negotiations that would need to occur with the government.

3.1 Coming from Citrus County and understanding the culture are a major part of why I can see the opportunity with this road.  This has been building over the years and had been controversial, but know that we know it is coming, I think many people recognize the potential for progress associated with the road being built.  Another thing I realize that other Citrus County residents might not, is that the county cannot stay as small as it is now.  It is going to grow, and we can either grow with it or fall to nothing.

2. The Fed has cut rates several times in the last couple years and this is definitely an economic trend that we really do not know what it is going to cause.  Private industry in many regards does not think we are to a recession yet, but the Fed thinks it is just on the horizon.

a. I have mostly been following this issue on the news but I read an article on Forbes that indicated the same information, and this article from Yahoo (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-fomc-decision-september-2019-133503618.html).  

b. This is definitely a trend that leads to opportunity.  Because there is such volatility in the market there is room for great gains, and also great losses.  Like Dr. Pryor said last class, times like these are great for venture capitalists that will play the market in these last stretch of growth to make great gains.  But also, if these rates continue to drop we will see that the housing market will have to increase.  Recently, it has been declining and some people believe it is in a recession of its own, but the Fed may be trying to turn this around.  I do not know if artificial stimulation of this market will work, but if I had to say anything it would be to sell property wait for the market to collapse and then buy a lot of property.

c. The people with the greatest probability to make out well in this situation are those buying if interest rates go negative, or those selling if we end up in a recession.  Finally, I have to mention venture capitalists again who may use this to their great advantage.

d. This opportunity is hard to exploit because so many people are so unsure of what is happening with the markets right now.  We also have to worry about the effects of the trade war with China to determine how this might swing.

3.2 I think that most people see this as an opportunity, but they may not know how to exploit it because of the unknown nature surrounding it.  You also need many assets to successfully tackle this situation.  If the PhD economists do not know what is happening, all amateurs can hope to do is get lucky. 

Regulatory Changes

3. Recently affecting Alachua County, the government here passed a law that only allows 21 year olds and older to purchase tobacco products.  This also requires people to show ID every time they want to purchase tobacco regardless of age.

a. I found out about it at Publix because I had to complete a new training about the regulation.  When regulation changes happen like this, there is always a computer based training to go along with it.

b. There is definitely a new illegal market.  Instead of seeing 18-20 year olds purchasing it for themselves (and maybe some minors), this is not going to correct the issue.  All we will see is 21 year olds buying it for their college friends and probably still some minors.  Let's be real, if you have a tobacco addiction and you now fall out of the range to purchase it, most are not going to try to quit cold turkey.  The black market is going to ensue.  Now, from a legal perspective, if you are a lobbyist for the tobacco industry, this is definitely your time to start working hard to reverse the policy.  I do not see it happening, but they have millions in resources to try.

c. The prototypical customers are the ones benefiting from the black market for the drug.  However, I think the government is the main customer.  They have to convince them that they should reverse their decision and let people live as free Americans.  Bans do not stop the action, so the existing market is there even if it is getting it in different ways.

d. This will be hard to exploit because of the illegal nature of one aspect and the hard job of the other.  To get a board like the Alachua County Commission to change their mind on an issue like this will be difficult and maybe impossible without getting court involved.

3.3 I am still not sure that this is a viable opportunity for a new entrepreneur, but I guess it is something to consider.  I mean most changes in regulations are to make things harder for the market to grow so creativity needs to be a large factor in this case.

4. At the last legislative session, the Florida House voted to ban texting and driving.  This increased the need for hands free technology that will prevent you from getting a ticket.

a. I found this keeping in touch with politics and saw the news posting about it a lot while session was in its final days.  It is still relevant now because the fees associated have not taken root yet, right now they are still only giving warning for the offense.

b. Depending on how strict law enforcement is with the law, the opportunity could become huge.  They can't really determine whether or not you were texting unless they see your phone which would be protected by the 4th amendment.  With that being said, they may overextend the bounds because I would think having your phone in your hand is grounds for probable cause.  I'm no legal expert, but hands free technology avoids the issue entirely.

c. I think that most customers are going to be young drivers because I think they are most prone to this risky behavior, but with cell phones having an increasing influence, it can extend to all drivers.

d. This opportunity is very easy to exploit because so many people drive vehicles.  You just need to drive the fear into them that they are going to get pulled over without the use of what you have.  This means the expansion of cell phone holders, the want for bluetooth radios, etc.

3.4 Having seen how many teenagers/young adults text and drive the issue is kind of personal.  I get Snapchats all the time of people driving and I just do not get it.  One Snap Streak is not worth me dying, call me a stick in the mud.  But honestly, this is being driven by regulation and I see sales of these items staying stagnant while warnings are being written, but the first of the year you can bet people will change their tune after getting a not-so-nice ticket.